The “four elephants” of the mobile electronics industry – if not the entire tech world – are Apple, Google, Microsoft and Samsung, as Tae Hea Nahm, founding general partner of Storm Ventures put it at a recent Wireless Communications Alliance event. They’re prepared to do “whatever it takes to win.”
Samsung is positioned to take honors as lead bull at CES next week, if only by default. Apple and Microsoft won’t be there. Google is relying on partners like LG and, maybe, Intel to build buzz. But even if they were there, Samsung would still be the odds on favorite. CES is home turf.
So, which one of the remaining three is the likeliest candidate for the elephant’s graveyard?
It won’t be Apple. Their product sales and zeitgeist share are as strong as ever, recent share price turmoil not withstanding. Google has the mass market side of the mobile operating system business firmly under control and occupies commanding positions in other tech sectors. No signs of weakness.
Come the end of the year, it’s Microsoft that won’t be mentioned in the same breath as the rest. Speculation about its collapse is years premature, but it no longer controls its own future. Mobile carriers and manufacturers, computer makers and IT professionals will make the decisions and launch the innovations that will determine how small Microsoft’s eventual slice of the pie will be.
The more interesting question is who will take its place. LG isn’t giving an inch to Samsung. Amazon is a champion in both consumer technology distribution and core Internet services. They’ve scored one hit with the Kindle and might be ready to expand further into mobile devices. Or maybe it’s finally time for a Chinese player like Huawei to step up.
Watch for signs of someone making a move on the front of the herd next week.