The unveiling of Gigabit Seattle yesterday is just the first step on a long road to building a fiber to the premises (FTTP) service for residents. The City of Seattle and the University of Washington have endorsed a plan by a consulting firm – Gigabit Squared – to “begin raising the capital needed” for a demonstration project.
It’s not small change. The 200 miles of fiber needed to reach 50,000 homes and businesses in 12 neighborhoods will cost something like $50 million to install and light up. In round numbers, the Seattle demo looks remarkably similar to plans for building an FTTP network in Palo Alto: similar mileage, existing city-owned dark fiber network, urban terrain, prevailing wage rules, environmental standards and university-leaning demographics. Depending on the assumptions made, construction costs would be around the $40 to $60 million range.
I did an extensive analysis of the costs, potential revenue and overall FTTP business case for the City of Palo Alto earlier this year. Specifically, I looked at whether or not it could be built and operated solely on the basis of subscriber revenue, including up front charges. The short answer is no. The long answer is hell no.
On the other hand, if you build it with money that doesn’t need to be paid back for a couple of generations, then it’s possible. Not certain, though. Depending on the assumptions, such a network might generate enough revenue to pay operating costs. Or might not.
Either way, the City of Seattle won’t be picking up the tab. “The City’s only costs are for existing staff,” says the FAQ on the City’s website. “There is no additional City money going into this project, and there is no risk to the taxpayer.”
In fact, the City of Seattle is expecting to be paid for the dark fiber it’ll be contributing. It’s up to Gigabit Squared to find the money. And as Esme Vos points out, “they are an engineering and consulting firm, not a traditional ISP” with a track record to show investors and cash flow to smooth out the bumps.
So far, the only source mentioned is a $200 million kitty that gigabit Squared says it has raised in partnership with Gig.U, a consortium of U.S. universities. Gig.U is led by former FCC staffer Blair Levin, who headed up development of the National Broadband Plan. That money is intended to be split amongst at least six projects, of which Seattle is the second announced (first was Chicago).
Even though details on the cash are vague, Gigabit Seattle has surprisingly firm plans. Initial engineering work is scheduled to begin in the next two or three months, with project completion by the end of 2014.
That’s for the demo project, which will only reach 12 Seattle neighborhoods out of more than 100. According to the city’s FAQ, Gigabit Seattle has set a benchmark of a 15% take rate. Once 15% of the potential subscribers in the first 12 neighborhoods sign up for service, the network will be rolled out to the rest of the city in phases. That’s not an impossible figure to hit. Palo Alto’s research shows there’s a fair chance of getting to 15% even with a $100 per month price tag.
But first they need to find the cash to build it, and it won’t be easy if they have to show a plausible timeframe for an investment grade return on investment.