Steve Blum's Blog

Policies, partnerships and common goals attract broadband investment to communities

2010-06-07T20:17:00.000-07:00

Capital expense, operating expense and revenue are the basic parameters of a business plan. With broadband-specific incentives that improve those metrics – even marginally – local governments and economic development agencies can attract private broadband investment into underserved areas.

Public policies can be tailored to significantly reduce construction costs. Uniform, broadband-friendly right of way and permit procedures eliminate a huge source of uncertainty for business planners. The more certain they are of their estimates, the more likely they are to invest.

   In the long run, it might not seem like much,
   but even a little guaranteed anchor revenue
   can make a huge upfront differenceOffering public facilities, for example vertical assets or space for nodes, on a co-investment basis and pre-installing empty conduit whenever roads are built or trenches are opened will also lower the hurdle for network builds. Of course, standard economic development tools such as sales tax concessions, community development funds and local seed capital work for broadband too.

Reducing the capital cost in a given locality improves its competitive position versus other regions by broadening the pool of potential service providers and increasing their return on investment. It also makes it easier for projects to qualify for assistance from the likes of the California Advanced Services Fund and the federal Rural Utilities Service.

Reducing capital costs isn't always the answer, though. There are tradeoffs between capital and operating expenses. For example, it's cheaper to hang fiber on poles than bury it, but the ongoing costs are higher. Capitalizing leases for node locations and vertical assets reduce operating expenses while raising capital costs.

Another way to reduce operating costs is for local agencies to partner with service providers on items like bulk Internet access and maintenance. One big wholesale bandwidth purchase will usually be cheaper than two medium size contracts. Local agencies might be able to set up agreements for joint pole maintenance or trenching. There's a long list of possibilities worth discussing with prospective broadband system operators.

Documenting demand and leveraging public sector IT and telecoms budgets will brighten revenue prospects. The cost of an investment-grade demand study ranges into the low six figures for a local or regional-scale project. A service provider will spend that money on localities it already finds attractive, leaving local organizations to fund research for the area they represent.

A local agency can be an anchor tenant for a new broadband system, particularly when it can suggest ways of configuring a network so that key points are included. The agency should be able to reduce its own operating costs, while at the same time providing an early, guaranteed revenue stream to the service provider.

Given the tradeoffs between operating and capital expenses, the fixed cost of running a broadband system can be relatively low. The greatest value of an upfront contract to a system operator is its reliability, not necessarily the dollar amount involved.

It's surprising how even small incentives – such as slightly lower costs, upfront contracts or small loans – can grab the attention of potential broadband operators and tip the balance in favor of a given locality. Sometimes, it's just a matter of everyone speaking the same language.

Getting back to business with broadband investment

2010-06-06T14:08:00.000-07:00

The federal stimulus program overshadowed private sector funding for new broadband infrastructure for more than a year. The National Telecommunications and Information Administration and, to a somewhat lesser extent, the Rural Utilities Service (RUS) threatened to wash out broadband venture opportunities with billions of dollars of grants and loans. Some projects will absorb federal money instead of private risk capital. Most won't and the surviving opportunities will become evident over the next few months.

Price points, service benchmarks and likelihood
to buy are key data for revenue projectionsLocal agencies and economic development organizations still have the job of attracting that investment. Instead of telling tales of dire need, they'll be back to the business of encouraging business by documenting unmet demand and offering the right incentives to tip decisions in their direction. I'll have more to say about sweetening the pot later. The first job is to refocus on demand.

Need and demand are two very different things. Need is a general concept, and leans heavily on qualitative judgments. It's a useful basis for public policy discussions, and marketers can use it to target services and products. Raw need, though, is not very helpful in making a core business case.

Demand is a precisely defined, quantitative, microeconomic metric. It's usually the one big missing piece when service providers, and their investors, are evaluating a network build outside of their existing footprint.

Demographics, geography and existing infrastructure are important too, but the first two are freely available and most people who are active in the broadband investment space have a good enough idea of what's already out there. The state broadband mapping projects funded by the federal stimulus program are likely to be game changers, and that makes it even better.

A good demand study, with estimates of take rates over a range of services and price points, leads to supportable revenue projections. When it comes to attracting an investor, a statistically valid and methodologically sound revenue projection is gold. It's a lot easier to persuade someone to invest in a project that promises revenue. Investors aren't interested in much else.

Going forward, public broadband funding will follow private capital. The two big remaining pots of public money belong to state universal service programs such as the California Advanced Services Fund and RUS, both of which require substantial private sector co-investment, sustainable business plans that are well documented and, where RUS is concerned, the ability to take on considerable debt.

Need motivates local governments and organizations to compete for private broadband investment. They'll win when they can put demand on the table.

Building community broadband: three things that work without stimulus grants

2010-05-15T21:48:00.000-07:00

The California Emerging Technology Fund (CETF) has funded several regional broadband consortia in northern and central California. At its third annual Rural Connections workshop in Redding this week, representatives from six groups presented the results of their work over the past couple of years. Two, covering California's Gold Country and Redwood Coast, stood out as having made genuine progress toward bringing Silicon Valley-grade Internet service to areas that are otherwise off the broadband map.

Gold Country Connect provides prospective investors
with broadband planning toolsBrent Smith, CEO of Sierra Economic Development Corporation, and Connie Stewart from Humboldt State University had success stories to tell. Three key lessons stood out:

1. Seek out motivated investors, including competitive local exchange carriers and independent Internet service providers, and find ways to improve their business cases and nudge them towards your goals. Don't waste everyone's time trying to bribe or bully them into accepting your plans or implementing your programs. A patchwork of operating networks beats a pristine concept with no takers, every time.

2. Do your homework and make sure it's A-grade. Simple, quantitative market research that identifies market gaps and charts statistically valid demand at defined price points is pure gold to private sector investments analysts. A centralized broadband mapping project with service provider buy-in, like that run by Chico State University, puts the cards face up on the table and lets everyone get down to business without posturing and poor mouthing.

3. Subsidies help, but don't necessarily need to be large. A guaranteed loan, a little local capital, even a tax break can tip the balance for a potential private sector broadband investor. When bigger subsidies are needed, the lion's share of the risk can still fall on private investors. The California Advanced Services Fund will do a 40% match against private capital in underserved areas, and that's been enough for hundreds of kilometers of fiber.

Unified community support is important, and creates a level of comfort that the project can be implemented. Leadership is needed to gain rights of way, permits and variances, and overcome bureaucratic inertia. Business analysts are more impressed by political muscle and professional, statistically valid research than they are by crayon drawings from a third grade class.

Real progress in other CETF-sponsored consortia has been hampered by a focus on community feel-good exercises and unworldly research. Evidently, Chico State's mapping expertise is not matched by its economics department: someone there seems to think you can do a demand aggregation study without asking tiresome questions about price elasticity. The good thing about this kind of conference is that public sector decision makers get to see what works and what doesn't, and can respond appropriately.

The last item on the conference agenda was the decision to come back for a fourth year. Expect to see a longer list of success stories.

The stimulus was fun while it lasted, now back to work

2010-05-14T19:55:00.000-07:00

It's time to look past the stimulus program, and re-adjust community broadband planning assumptions. The National Telecommunications and Information Administration's (NTIA) Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP) and the Rural Utilities Service's (RUS) Broadband Initiatives Program (BIP) encouraged local groups to roll themselves up into regional alliances and propose magnificent projects that would meet any conceivable need and serve every user imaginable.

It made sense, because that's where the money was. NTIA and RUS made some dreams real in the first round last year, and are on track to fulfill a few more fantasies in the second round. But even though BTOP is reopening for what amounts to a stunted, public-safety focused third round, the good times are over and we have to return to the old normal.

It's a world where the free money is mostly gone. Once the BTOP money is spent, NTIA goes back to being a small agency running small programs. In rural areas, RUS and state programs, like the California Advanced Services Fund (CASF), will provide grants and loans to organizations with a qualifying track record and, in some cases, enough cash to fund half or more of proposed projects themselves.

Adelstein and RUS general
field representative Harry Hutson showed
CETF conference attendees in Redding
how the first round BIP money went
down the spoutRUS won't fund projects that compete with their existing loan portfolio, however. Speaking to the California Emerging Technologies Fund's third annual Rural Connections workshop in Redding this week, RUS administrator Jonathan Adelstein made it clear that the agency will give priority to organizations that it already funds, and won't subsidize competing projects.

CASF expects it will continue to fund new broadband projects in California, but only in areas where AT&T, Verizon and the cable companies fail to upgrade infrastructure. A few arguable urban pockets aside, it's the remote rural regions that have a shot.

Elsewhere, community broadband advocates will have to go back to the basics. Tried and true economic development strategies, like public-private partnerships, tax breaks and other incentives, and old fashioned salesmanship, will be effective. But only where public agencies and community advocates can present a focused and well documented business case and be flexible enough to accept that private capital comes with its own priorities.

The old normal is a world where subscriber metrics, return on investment and anchor tenants trump grand visions, sad stories and political grease. Painstaking determination and hard work count again, though. That's a world worth calling home.

Best Practices Highlight Wireless Broadband Feasibility Study for the City of Oakland

2010-05-13T14:23:00.000-07:00

Download the Oakland Wireless Feasibility Study

Like nearly every government agency in California, the City of Oakland was faced with increasing demand for public services and a decreasing budget. An evaluation was needed of the potential for wireless technology to make municipal staff more efficient and allow them to stay in the field longer, and to provide Internet service to residents, either directly in their homes and businesses or indirectly through community anchor institutions. This evaluation needed to focus specifically on Oakland's diverse population, needs and terrain.

The City's goals were:

Enhance economic development by enabling businesses to operate more effectively and by making Oakland a more attractive place to live, work, and visit.
Improve public safety by putting more police officers, fire fighters, inspectors and public works staff into the field, keeping them there longer and letting them work more efficiently.
Increase the effectiveness of public, private, and nonprofit organizations through improved access to state of the art broadband wireless technology.
Help overcome the digital divide.
Improve the quality of life for all Oaklanders.

Tellus Venture Associates was brought in to do a comprehensive feasibility study that would include public focus groups, workshops and a town hall meeting, close coordination with City departments and outside agencies, and a technical survey that included radio frequency modeling over the hills, canyons, flatlands and waterways within the city limits.

When we analysed the research data, the trends that emerged tracked closely with the best practices we've developed during seven years of municipal and community broadband experience. The result was a more refined list of those principles:

No matter what the manufacturer says, the laws of physics still apply. No matter what the special interests say, sound business principles still apply. Don't underestimate the public's appreciation of physics and sound business principles, or overestimate its regard for manufacturers and special interests.
City-owned and operated metropolitan area networks are a cost effective means of extending information technology infrastructure and resources to local government facilities and employees.
Providing broadband connectivity to targeted community anchor institutions can be financially and technically feasible for cities, and is supported by public opinion.
Providing universal, consumer-grade wireless Interet access is not financially or technically feasible for cities, and is not supported by public opinion.
Cities can better promote digital inclusion by enabling and supporting a competitive broadband environment.
Widespread public awareness and support precedes deployment of a successful municipal broadband system.
Fiber optic and wireless technologies can be effective choices for network backbone segments, depending on capital and operating cost, timing, right-of-way, capacity and other considerations.
Fiber optic and other landline technologies provide orders of magnitude more bandwidth and many more years of useful service life, with lower operating costs.
Wireless technologies can be deployed faster and at much lower capital expense, and provide greater flexibility to change network topologies and service models to meet future needs.
Wireless technologies have the unique ability to support municipal staff in the field, particularly public safety personnel, but should only be deployed after an independent evaluation of technology, terrain and available spectrum.

With these principles in mind, we assessed the Oakland public's needs and priorities, designed a reference architecture that could meet those needs, and developed a business model that quantified the benefits, demonstrated the value proposition and identified the money to pay for it all.

Our findings were:

A point-to-point wireless broadband system serving specific community and institutional needs is financially and technically sustainable for the City of Oakland.
The cost of building and operating such a system can be met through identifiable cost savings, efficiency gains and budgetary choices based on the economic value of the benefits produced.
Public Internet access by way of community anchor institutions is financially and technically feasible, and universally supported by a diverse range of Oakland residents, organizations, agencies and businesses if it is implemented in a fiscally sound manner.
Enabling entrepreneurial opportunities for local businesses on a pay-as-you-go, public-private partnership basis is also backed by Oakland stakeholders and supported by the financial and technical analysis conducted for this study.
Providing wireless Internet service to residences or individual consumers is not financially sustainable or technically feasible for the City of Oakland, and is opposed by nearly all stakeholders, who cite the widespread technical and financial failure of such systems in other cities.

The next step was to secure the funding. Some of it came from the cost savings created by replacing a large number of low capacity, leased land lines with a comprehensive wireless backbone, comprised of high capacity point-to-point links using licensed spectrum. Some of it came from money budgeted for expensive cellular data service. In other cases, savings in man-hours and increased productivity, including more and better field audits by tax officers, offset operating costs.

Finding the money to pay for the capital expense was a different problem. Bonds were not an option, given the uncertainty of future budgets. Some of the funding could be raised locally, through public-private partnerships, but not all of it.

Fortunately, the conclusion of the study coincided with the establishment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, also known as the federal economic stimulus program, which included $7.2 billion for broadband projects. With its emphasis on public safety, community anchor institutions and economic development, the broadband infrastructure plan created by Tellus Venture Associates for the City of Oakland was ideally suited to meet the program's requirements.

The stimulus grant application had to wait until the second round of funding, because the first round emphasized rural projects and all but excluded urban areas from eligibility for broadband infrastructure funding. At the same time Google announced its own broadband grant program, which likewise tracked with the best practices we incorporated into the study. Both applications are now pending.

The final step will be to move ahead with construction of the system. Tellus Venture Associates prepared a draft Request for Proposal, which sets out the specifications for a municipal broadband system that would serve the City of Oakland. In some cases, such as providing broadband connectivity to public safety personnel in the field, the technology that would be employed is necessarily wireless. But in other cases, for example the core network backbone, wireless, fiber optic or other technologies are all possibilities. Those determinations, as well as any decision to release an RFP, will be made by City staff, once funding is secured.

Oakland Wireless Feasibility Study

Printable, high resolution version

City of Oakland staff report

Study presentation to Oakland City Council

City of Oakland wireless reference architecture

Oakland townhall meeting presentation

Follow the money, from the first to the second round of broadband stimulus grants

2010-01-18T19:15:00.000-08:00

More than a thousand first round hopefuls are still staring into the black hole that swallowed their applications. The second round notifications of funding availability (NOFAs) issued by the Rural Utilities Service (RUS) and National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) for the broadband stimulus program do not explicitly address the status of first round applications.

The stimulus bill gave RUS $2.5 billion and NTIA $4.7 billion for broadband project funding. In the first round, RUS said it would give out up to $2.4 billion. Now its saying it'll give out a total $2.2 billion in the second round. The target budget is:

Category	Second Round
Last mile projects	$1.7 billion
Middle mile projects	$300 million
Satellite projects	$100 million
Libraries, tech assist	$5 million
Reserve	$95 million
Total	$2.2 billion

That leaves $300 million, which presumably goes to first round grants and, presumably, overhead. So far, RUS has only announced $54 million in first round grants. It still has first round applications in the due diligence stage of review, so any applicant that's made it that far has a plausible hope of winning funding. The lion's share of RUS's money is shifting to the second round, so if you haven't heard back about first round review yet, I suggest you start thinking about round two.

Unless you also put in a joint bid to NTIA. Including broadband mapping grants, NTIA allocated nearly $2 billion to first round projects. It's allocating a total of $2.6 billion for the second round:

Category	Total Targeted	First Round	Second Round
Infrastructure	$3.55 billion	$1.2 billion	$2.35 billion
Public computer centers	$200 million	$50 million	$150 million
Sustainable adoption	$250 million	$150 million	$100 million
Mapping	$350 million	$350 million	-0-
Reserve	$200 million	$200 million	-0-
Total	$4.55 billion	$1.95 billion	$2.6 billion

The two NTIA rounds match up pretty closely with the targeted totals. There's $150 million unaccounted for, but that's a believable overhead number for a federal operation.

The inference is that the two rounds will be processed, considered and funded separately. As it lays out now, if you have a first round NTIA application that's disappeared into the process, it's possible that you might yet advance to the due diligence stage. But that possibility diminishes as time goes on, particularly if NTIA sticks to its end-of-February target for closing out the first round and its 30-day due diligence period.

The second round workshops start next week, and more information should be available by then. My advice to first round applicants who haven't heard from NTIA yet is to spend this week beginning to form the community alliances that it advocates so enthusiastically. It won't be wasted effort, even if you slide into the first round under the wire.

Real time tweets from Showstoppers at CES 2010

2010-01-07T22:28:00.000-08:00

PlasticLogic promises and deliversPlasticLogic is back with a real product this year, was worth the wait, $649 to $799 for coolest pro-level e-book reader.

PlasticLogic QUE Pro Reader delivers newspapers, displays work documents, has PIM functions, wireless connectivity.

Screen 10.7 inches diagonal, unit 8.5x11 total, wafer thin, light as feather, at top of a crowded category.

Xyxio has breakout potential although it's a headscratcher at first look, control a computer with your breath.

Xyxio is a technology company, offers means to create devices that are breath controlled and do the same thing as a mouse.

Can use to control GPS while driving, combine breath control with voice input, real potential for disabled people.

Xyxio isn't a gamechanger but has potential to make a lot of things a little more useful in ways never considered.

Sanyo demoing electric bike, motor won't run unless you pedal a bit, not much of a workout but a hell of a lot of fun.

If Lance had one he'd still be with SherylZaggbox is a home media aggregator, also aggregates your gizmos, control all your boxes with one remote.

Siemens Gigaset turns your home phone system into a Bluetooth accessory for your mobile phone.

Mobile phone rings, answer it using your landline handset, no running around the house looking for the damn thing.

iMate is ruggedized GSM smartphone, works underwater, can run over it with a car, $700, not Mythbusters tested yet though.

At least you'll know where it isVu is showing a teeping platform costing $3,500 without monitor, really glorified video conferencing, nice stuff anyway.

FastPencil is online collaboration/coaching/publishing for would-be authors.

Big Brother, take 1: Tiwi is realtime GPS tracker for teen drivers, tells parents if they misbehave or go out of bounds.

Big Brother, take 2: Datecheck is web service powered by Internet snoop Intelius, "Look up before you hook up".

PogoPlug lets you feed video content from a hard drive to a mobile phone, does transcoding into H.264 and Flash.

PogoPlug streams your video on Internet, managed via their portal, say they'll shut you down if you violate their TOS.

Evolution Robotics showing a hardwood floor cleaning robot, costs $250, sorta mops up with a swiffer.

Very cool idea by Shapeways, upload a 3D diagram, they print out a 3D model of it and send it to you.

You can make toys, prototypes, rings, special items for events, cost goes from a few bucks to maybe $100.

Avermedia showing a gizmo that feeds video into a PC off air, then makes it available to you and your friends over the web.

Avermedia's technology looks good but the service model is not lawyer-tested.

IFA presentation interesting, neat history, would make for a nice trip in September.

Fraunhofer up now talking about home telepresence.

It's a wrap: another great Showstoppers, quality time with smart people showing interesting stuff, good food and drinks. Thanks!

Broadband stimulus grant update: first round still under review, second round likely to slip a bit

2010-01-07T13:16:00.000-08:00

Anna Gomez, deputy assistant secretary for communications and information at NTIA (National Telecommunications and Information Administration), spoke at today's Tech Policy Summit at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Secretary Gomez speaks to reporters
at 2010 Consumer Electronics ShowShe repeated previous agency comments about wanting to "get it done fast, get it done right and with the greatest effect possible."

She described the Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP) as "unprecedented" at the NTIA.

Lessons learned in a difficult first round would be applied in the second round. Among those lessons is a better understanding of what sort of projects should take priority for BTOP funding.

Her comments regarding the program's time line were:

The notice of funding availability (NOFA) for the second round will be released in a "few weeks". She wouldn't say if that means the previous target of mid-January would slip, although she left room for thinking it will.
The first round grants will be completed "on a rolling basis over the next two months."
All grants will be made by Congress' mandated deadline of 30 September 2010.
In separate comments, Karen Jackson from the Commonwealth of Virginia's Technology Office, confirmed that there will be at least a 60 day window for second round applications, rather than the original 45 day deadline in the first round.

I spoke with Secretary Gomez afterward about some of the nuances of the application review time line and progress to date. She couldn't provide much else in the way of details, although the inference was that the first review stage for the first round BTOP (broadband technology opportunities program) applications is still ongoing, and that not all of the projects that will advance to the second, due diligence stage of review have been selected.

She did say "our goal is to make sure people know their status in time to file in the second round." Asked whether first round applicants could be in the position of having to simultaneously prepare a second round application and follow up on a first round application, she said "hopefully not."

Connecting the dots, here's my take:

The second round NOFA will be released around the end of January, maybe even as late as the first or second week of February.
If a first round application hasn't advanced to the second stage of review by the end of the month, it won't.
The second round NOFA will be more specific about program goals, be structured to encourage cooperation amongst applicants, and favor projects that include significant, shared middle mile infrastructure, with or without last mile facilities.
NTIA has a much better understanding now of how to run the program and what its goals should be. Don't be surprised if the first round falls significantly short of its $4 billion target, with unspent funds redirected to specific program goals in the second round.

Secretary Gomez also announced a new program, available at match.broadbandusa.gov, called Broadband Match. It's an online tool that is supposed to "facilitate partnerships among prospective applicants for a grant." She said the idea is to further NTIA head Larry Strickling's goal for the next round of favoring public/private partnerships that take a "comprehensive view" of communities.

She said that they want to ensure that key community members - meaning anchor institutions and government agencies - can access middle mile projects directly and that private companies can make use of it to create last mile services that reach consumers and businesses.

The emphasis in the second round will clearly be on middle mile projects. Gomez spotlighted the grant made to such a project in Georgia last month as an excellent example of what they'll be looking for in the second round. The objective of the Broadband Match program is to ensure that public/private groups "can put together the most comprehensive application possible."

Computing power can now go wherever people want it

2010-01-07T09:08:00.000-08:00

Light Blue Optics debuted its Light Touch technology here at the Consumer Electronics Show, and it is what computers, mobile and fixed, will be ten years from now. As CEO Chris Harris put it, "it transforms any flat surface into a touchscreen." The concept is disruptively simple. What it really does is unleash computing power from physical, mechanical devices.

Any table becomes a team work spaceKeyboards, mice and monitors are easily broken and awkward to arrange anywhere except a desk. Touchscreens and pads are all of that, as well as being expensive and hard to keep clean. But we're used to it and anyway, it's what computers are from a user's perspective.

Not anymore.

The reference device is about the size of a paperback book and projects a 10-inch image onto a table. It senses the location and movement of your hands, and you can manipulate the image by brushing your fingers across the table top. You can select items, move them about, operate controls, even type on a virtual keyboard albeit slowly for now.

Flip through a menu, wipe off the tableA computer - at least the bits humans directly use - can now be anywhere. You can page through a restaurant menu directly on the table. You can play a game, by yourself or with someone else, on an airline seat tray. You can project an ad layout or a circuit diagram onto a conference room table, allowing everyone to work on it together.

It can be permanently installed, as in a restaurant, or carried about, from room to room or in a briefcase.

Plans and directions can be seen and accessed wherever you're actually doing something. Page through a recipe on a kitchen counter top, or expand a shop diagram while your head is under the hood of your car. Work on your computer wherever you, and your colleagues, happen to be.

Right now, the reference design puts Light Blue Optic's holographic laser projector into a small unit with an ARM11 processor and 2 GB of solid state storage. It's battery powered and has WiFi, Bluetooth and micro USB connectivity.

Light Blue Optic's first holographic laser
projector reference productIt has a composite video input, a gravity sensor, a micro SD slot and a headphone jack. The projector output was set at 854 x 480 Wide VGA.

As productized, it's a mobile accessory - it'll take video input from a mobile phone - but that's just a very small start.

The product was integrated by Foxconn, and is being offered as a reference design for the OEM market.

The company won't talk about pricing or bill of materials cost. Right now, it's probably very costly to make because the core holographic laser technology is not mass produced. Once production volumes ramp up, costs will plummet, to less than a large touchscreen in the near term and eventually to less than a keyboard and monitor.

This concept unit runs applications written in Adobe Flash Lite. There's no software developer kit yet, the company says it will run applications written for any touchscreen. Maybe. In any event, this particular device is just a start. It's the technology behind it that counts, and it can be integrated into any device, or no device at all. Network it to cloud computing resources and the computer - the physical object we know it as - disappears.

The revolutionary services, applications and products this technology enables haven't been imagined yet. But in the not-too-distant future we won't think of using computers in any other way.

Mobile phone disruption coming soon to a TV near you

2010-01-06T18:31:00.000-08:00

"If you like developing for a 3-inch screen, I have a 55-inch screen for you," challenged Tim Baxter, president of Samsung Electronics America, as he invited mobile application developers into the world of television. Speaking at the Consumer Electronics Show, he introduced Samsung Apps, a consolidated app store for televisions, mobile phones and Blu-ray players.

You're welcomeSamsung is a major mobile phone and television manufacturer, with a mobile phone app store already serving subscribers in Europe and Korea. It connected the dots simply and elegantly. If you can run your calendar and tweet from your mobile phone, why not do it on your TV? If you're watching a movie on your TV, why not walk away and keep watching it on your mobile phone?

The answer to both might be "because nobody wants to". That's fine, those are obvious applications that Samsung already has on the table. By creating app stores, with all credit to Apple for walking point, mobile phone companies created and proved out a business model that disrupted their own industry and will do the same to the television business.

Details are still thin, but Baxter said Samsung Apps, and the devices it supports, will be an open platform and that they will be releasing a software developer kit. They'll start with free apps in the spring and add premium apps later this summer.

The next TV superstar will be the software developer who figures out what to do with a CPU-enabled television besides watch linear content. It doesn't have to be a major Hollywood blockbuster. It almost certainly will be a high concept, low complexity application created by one or two independent devs that does something no one ever thought to do on a TV before.

RIP STB

2010-01-06T12:35:00.000-08:00

The set top box is on the run, harried away by television manufacturers. Toshiba sounded the hunting horn this morning, unveiling its Cell TV product line. Don't be fooled by the name, it's a classic case of branding in a vacuum. It has nothing to do with mobile phones. It's a computer morphed into a set top box and wrapped with a big screen TV. The set top box is the TV.

Spot the set top boxToshiba calls the chip that powers it the Cell TV Broadband Engine, which was developed in a joint venture with Sony and IBM. Details were sketchy at the press conference. All Scott Ramirez, Toshiba's marketing VP for television, could say was "maybe you can ask one of the Japanese guys." That I'll do at their booth tomorrow.

They did know that the chip has 8 cores and is capable of 200 GFLOPS. The TV set that's built around it also has a 1TB hard disk drive and all the networking capability - wired and wireless - anyone could want. It does Internet TV and social networking, works as a home media server and a video phone, and, they say, can convert standard 2D television into 3D. One highlighted feature is its ability to filter Internet noise and process video streams in real time, to narrow the gap between cable/satellite and Internet delivery.

Quite the change from last year, when all the TV set guys said they were putting an Ethernet port into all their products, but didn't quite know what anyone would do with it. This year, it looks like Toshiba, at least, is getting it right. Take a ton of computing power, use most of it to enhance video quality, save a tiny bit for networking, navigation and sharing, and give it a consumer-friendly user interface that actually does the job.

They've turned set top box technology into just another feature set, and integrated it into their product line. Fewer gizmos in the living room and fewer start-up plays in the consumer video space mean content creators and online services will have the same direct path to the living room television that they do to a desktop computer.

The buzz from CES Unveiled

2010-01-05T19:03:00.000-08:00

CES Unveiled was the usual mob scene. Maybe even more so this year. But its a good first look at what has the buzz and what doesn't.

Lenovo tablet computer becomes a laptopLenovo was the only computer maker showing a genuine tablet computer at the event. And its a beauty.

It's really two computers in one. The tablet runs on a mobile processor and has good, basic functionality. It docks into a laptop-like device. In fact, when it's docked, it is a laptop.

The tablet becomes the screen and the laptop unit powers it with a full-on Intel processor and a keyboard. People were stacked three, four, sometimes five and six deep trying to get a look.

Entourage's e-book readerE-book readers were surprisingly hard to find, but there were a few. Marvell had some cool reference designs.

One was a dead ringer for a gizmo I've been waiting years and years to get: a wafer thin tablet maybe 15 cm by 20 cm, that I've been lusting after ever since I first saw one on Star Trek Deep Space Nine.

Entourage was showing a dual screen model. It opens like a book and has an e-book screen on one side and a smaller computer display, suitable for video and multimedia on the other.

The set top box business is losing its pizzaz. Not in terms of product - the user interfaces and on-screen navigation keep getting better and better - but in terms of it representing something cutting edge. Everybody knows you can get TV on the Internet, and you don't need cable or satellite to get all the movies and television shows you want.

Marvell's Deep Space Nine
reference designThe two best STB products on display, the Popbox and D-Link's Boxee unit, seamlessly integrate social networking functionality so you can watch TV with your friends, no matter where they might be.

The unexpectedly hot category was small projectors. Palm-top devices that let you watch TV or whatever from your mobile phone or share a video quickly were being demonstrated by 3M and Microvision.

Sharper Image was showing a prototype home projector that's supposed to start selling for $149 in August. These small, inexpensive projectors are based on LED technology that will only get better over the next two to three years. The days of the $1,000 video projector are numbered.

ASUS aims for design and lifestyle driven brand positioning

2010-01-05T15:30:00.000-08:00

ASUS chairman Jonney Shih gambled that he could set a meet-or-beat benchmark with an early Tuesday news conference at the Consumer Electronics Show. Risky strategy, because if he doesn't have a game-changing announcement, ASUS will end up looking diminished with every comparison made during Wednesday's wall-to-wall press events.

Didn't happen. No tablet computer or e-reader or smartphone to announce.

Turns out, the game they're trying to change is their brand positioning: shift the ASUS brand from representing smaller, cheaper, geekier laptops and netbooks to being a full-on, mainstream portable computer maker, with a design-driven, consumer electronics edge. Nowhere near, say, Sony's level, but they're certainly taking their first steps along that road. The goal is to become one of the top three portable computer makers by 2011.

World's first panda-recyclable laptopShih supported the positioning with new products. A streamlined product line for gamers and power users, with a full sized, full powered, Darth Vader-look laptop. High concept netbook styling by a brand name designer intended to appeal to women. Social responsibility and lower carbon footprints across the product line. Computers made out of bamboo. A big laptop that's trying to evoke the black tie aura of an orchestral instrument.

More powerful, better looking, greener, more this, more that. Unfortunately, Not news, unfortunately. It would be news, albeit bad, if this year's stuff ran just like last year's.

They have good stuff to talk about, and likely will move into the top three in their category in the near term. The mobile computer sector, Shih said, grew by 25% in the third quarter of 2009, while ASUS grew by 56%. That's exactly what they need to do.

From a concept perspective, Shih introduced Waveface, which might someday be a line of wearable, stuffable, mountable computing and communication devices, tightly integrated with a networked suite of lifestyle services. Think of a smartphone that wraps around your wrist like a bracelet, or a tablet computer that folds up like a piece of paper. Game-changing stuff, if it ever becomes actual stuff.

First dribble of broadband stimulus funding announced

2009-12-17T16:07:00.000-08:00

The feds today announced they were giving $182.7 million of broadband stimulus money to 18 projects scattered across the U.S. (but nothing so far for California). 18 projects funded out of 2,200 applications, representing less than 3% of the $7.2 billion allocated.

Not much detail but a few worrisome hints.

The infrastructure grants announced today all appear to be for RUS/BIP-type projects. Even the ones that were funded through NTIA/BTOP. That's consistent with what we heard back in September: a select few RUS projects were fastracked into the second stage of review.

RUS is going down a familiar path – giving money to rural clients. Unlike NTIA, RUS has the staff and experience to do this work, they didn't have to start from scratch. Even so, it took four months to process a handful of grants.

From the Associated Press:

The administration plans to award a total of $2 billion in grants and loans on a rolling basis over the next 75 days as it starts doling out the first round of stimulus funding for broadband.

Nice, but the first round was supposed to total $4 billion. Are they cutting the first round in half? Dragging it out past the end of February? Or did someone get the number wrong? Let's hope it's a typo. $2 billion is about what RUS was supposed to give out. Maybe they're only referring to NTIA. Or maybe only RUS has its act sufficiently together to get anything done in the next two or three months.

From StimulatingBroadband.com:

NTIA head Lawrence Strickling "yesterday stated that "300 to 400" project applications for broadband stimulus funding are now being reviewed...in the due diligence phase."

What's not clear is whether the other 1,800 or 1,900 applications are still in the queue, or have been rejected. If 1,800 apps are still sitting in someone's in-box, we're in for a long wait. If some or all have already been rejected, we need to know.

NTIA and RUS also just posted the comments they received regarding Round 2. It's a lot of reading.

This process might take a lot longer than anyone ever thought.

CPUC Approves $5 Million for central California coast broadband project

2009-11-23T11:29:00.001-08:00

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) unanimously approved a $4,975,009 grant from the California Advanced Services Fund (CASF) to the Central Coast Broadband Consortium (CCBC) on Friday, 20 November 2009. The grant pays for 10% of the approximately $50 million fiber optic trunk line network planned for Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito counties on California's central coast.

CCBC system map
CCBC's CASF and associated federal stimulus grant applications are managed by Tellus Venture Associates, which also does the financial planning and budgeting for the project. In August, the CCBC submitted a proposal for a $40 million grant to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's (NTIA) Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP) and the Rural Utility Service's (RUS) Broadband Initiatives Program. The remaining $5 million has already been committed by consortium members.

CPUC's approval follows endorsements by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and congressman Sam Farr, who represents the three county region. NTIA and RUS are reviewing the grant proposal, with a decision expected next month.

The project would create a 428 mile fiber optic backbone linking unserved and underserved areas to better served communities, and connecting the entire region to Tier 1 Internet facilities in Silicon Valley. Using a loop architecture, any point on the network would have two independent paths to any other point, and to the Internet.

Current plans are for the system to be operated by a cooperative, which will offer access on a wholesale basis to last-mile Internet service providers and major institutional customers.

Two big endorsements for major Central Coast broadband project

2009-10-26T10:35:00.001-07:00

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) staff have signed off on a 428 mile fiber optic trunk project for Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito counties on California's Central Coast. These approvals make it more likely that the project will receive federal stimulus money through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's (NTIA) Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP).

The Central Coast Broadband Consortium (CCBC) applied for grants to the CPUC's California Advanced Services Fund and BTOP in August. In round numbers, CCBC asked for $40 million from NTIA and $5 million from the CPUC, with the remaining $5 million coming from local agencies and organizations.

BTOP grants only fund 80% of proposed projects. A special law passed by the California legislature in August allows the CPUC to contribute 10%, if proposals also meet state funding requirements for unserved and underserved areas. CPUC staff reviewed the CCBC proposal, determining that it is a qualified and viable project and recommending that the commission approve it at its next meeting on 20 November 2009. Matching funds for other California broadband stimulus projects will also be considered then.

NTIA sent all 176 California requests to the governor's office for review. The governor endorsed 64, of which 30 were for broadband infrastructure projects (the remainder were public computer center and "sustainable broadband adoption" proposals). The next step is for NTIA to determine if the CCBC application meets its initial screening criteria and is eligible to move to the second, more intensive due diligence stage of review. That decision is expected within the next couple of weeks.

Tellus Venture Associates did the financial planning for the CCBC project, creating plans and budgets for the construction and operational phases, preparing the required financial documents for NTIA and the CPUC and developing sources for matching requirements and other funding needs. Tellus Venture Associates also managed the application process for the CCBC, identified and documented eligible service areas and, along with the City of Watsonville, Blue Pacific Computer, the Monterey County Business Council and other CCBC members, did the necessary economic and demographic analysis to support the application.

California State University, Monterey Bay was the lead agency for the application, filing it on behalf of the CCBC. CSUMB's Wireless Education and Technology Center is the host organization for the CCBC, playing the central role in creating, organizing and shepherding this community based initiative.

Digital sixth sense pokes a nose over the horizon

2009-10-08T13:42:00.000-07:00

He didn't invent it, but he might be the one who brings it to market. Paul Jacobs, CEO of Qualcomm, talked about a coming "digital sixth sense" at today's CTIA keynote session. His father, Qualcomm co-founder Irwin Jacobs, mentioned that at his age he'd like his mobile device to help him recognize faces and remember names. Paul took the idea to the next level, putting it together with other augmented reality concepts.

It's still a fuzzy notion. Generally though, augmented reality involves delivering instant information about the real world around you, more or less automatically. It could be a system for recognizing faces, telling you the person's name and giving you some quick background info regarding, say, the last time you met. Or you could look at the street you're on through your mobile phone's camera, and have buildings visually tagged with information about the businesses inside. And the list goes on.

The information flow can go both ways. You could walk into a party, take a quick peep at your phone's camera, and instantly know who's there. At the same time you could broadcast your own tag, telling something about yourself to anyone checking you out with a mobile phone.

Augmented reality still has a long way to go before it makes the jump from lab to market. But companies are starting to edge in that direction. The CTIA show featured applications that link GPS data to information about a specific location, and displays the result on a map. Intermap Technologies demonstrated its Accuterra iPhone app that provides tourist maps and guides to national parks and other outdoor attractions. They're taking a hard look at iPhone 3.1 platform, which was just released to developers and supports early stage augmented reality functionality.

Mobile phone cameras and screens are just the beginning. Utimately, it'll involve dedicated sensors and wearable display devices (glasses, maybe contact lenses?) tied to cloud based data and processing power. The mobile phone will just be one element in the augmented reality ensemble of the near future.

Realtime tweets from Pepcom and CTIA, 8 October 2009

2009-10-08T13:37:00.001-07:00

Irwin & Paul Jacobs of Qualcomm on stage talking about mobile phone development history, fascinating long view of industry.

Paul: user interface is the killer app, Irwin: iPhone was the major breakthrough.

These guys love their stuff, think critically about how it's used, best session of the show!

Far out & spot on prediction from Paul Jacobs: mobile phone will become "digital sixth sense".

John Donovan, ATT CTO, speaking now, interesting so far, outlining wireless data challenges.

Donovan slowly slipping from interesting talk into ATT briefing, almost defensive about tech choices.

Donovan managing to balance ATT pitch with industry high view, talk is substantive.

Increased focus on integrating social nets into unified communications platforms, new stuff from Trilibis, RocketVox at last night's Pepcom event.

RocketVox looks like the best of breed so far, goes live next Tuesday, will check it out.

Roambi showing platform for translating spreadsheets to mobile medium, adds killer graphics.

Real-time tweets from CTIA and Showstoppers, 7 October 2009

2009-10-07T18:06:00.000-07:00

Julius Genachowski, FCC chair, CTIA keynote, commends ATT, Verizon for opening iPhone to Internet calls, adopting Android.

Four priorities at FCC, spectrum for 4G, remove obstacles to 4G, "fair" rules of road for Internet, empower consumers.

Ralph de la Vega, ATT CEO up now, thanks Genchowski, but warns of danger of interference.

Ralph saying US mobile industry most innovative, consumer friendly in world, damn we're great.

Ralph descends into ATT sales pitch, time for a nap.

David Ko Yahoo Mobile SVP up now, he's excited about Yahoo's ads.

Ko hands off to tacky home page demo, abuse of a captive audience IMHO, l8r dood.

At Showstoppers event at CTIA show, saw some interesting companies and products.

FloTV is potential disruptor. Originally delivered streaming video for Verizon and ATT, now going direct to consumers.

FloTV will be selling something like 16 TV channels nationwide, via UHF channel 55, for $9 per month.

FloTV demonstrated branded mobile device with $249 price point, but no reason to think their market is limited to mobile subs.

FloTV essentially $9 per month basic cable with streaming news, sports & such. Get rest off air & by download, bye bye cable.

BOLT browser launched out of beta by Bitstream, heats up browser competition, further tilts market away from native apps.

Virgin Mobile showing first nationwide pay-go mobile broadband. $149 dongle, buy bandwidth in $10 or more increments.

Friendcaller.com showing browser to browser VOIP, not revolutionary but still a neat angle that'll find a market.

Intermap has Accuterra service, runs on iPhone, links GPS data to downloaded maps of parks, wildlands, fine for tourists.

Talked to Zer01 Mobile, claims unlimited data & voice for $70/month, lots of holes in their story though.

Mobile devs aligning into 2 camps: those who do & don't play nice with iPhone. Is iPhone the Apple II of smartphones?

Quick look around the press room at CTIA, nearly everyone using Macs, even the guy from PC World magazine.

Over the top of the wall

2009-10-07T17:48:00.000-07:00

Browser developers are doing their best to push apps out of the operating system. Roy Satterthwaite, vice president, Americas for Opera claimed that no one is developing native applications for desktop systems, that the market and the innovation is primarily browser based and the mobile market will go the same way. It's an arguable point, but the argument is interesting.

Bitstream took the opportunity to launch its BOLT browser out of beta and into the mainstream. Its aim is to replicate desktop browser functionality on a mobile phone. The killer app: Mafia Wars, a Facebook-based game that pushes the limits of what mobile browsers can handle. While it was still in beta, BOLT became the mobile browser of choice for Facebook gamers, at least according to Bitstream.

Google sees significant cost advantages to the browser-based approach. Supporting multiple platforms across a deep inventory of native applications is daunting, out of the reach of even Google.

Full featured mobile browsers could be the decisive breach in mobile carriers' walled gardens, particularly if the network neutrality concept extends its embrace to the mobile Internet.

Browser based applications, services and content can be quickly distributed across any and all platforms, to a large extent irrespective of carrier or handset manufacturer. A browser based platform is limited by its ability to access hardware resources such as cameras, GPS data, user interface and peripherals, even more so in the mobile realm than the desktop world. Satterthwaite's answer is standards-based APIs - JIL and Bondi for example - that enable browser access to device and, potentially, carrier network resources.

On the downside, that sort of access creates massive security headaches for carriers. But it's a headache they might well deserve. They've relied heavily on controlling both ends of the connection to manage their networks, a tactic that died thirty years ago in the personal computer sector. Whether the cause is the political push toward more open networks or the creative chaos of the marketplace, carriers will have to find better security solutions eventually.

Genchowski has an activist agenda for the FCC

2009-10-07T12:00:00.000-07:00

FCC chairman Julius Genachowski delivered the opening keynote at the CTIA IT and Entertainment conference today. He offered good of idea of what he has in store for the industry, and gave us a feeling for who he is.

If you take him at face value, the FCC is going to be the wireless industry's best friend. And the consumer's best friend. In fact, everybody's best friend.

Genchowski unveiled what he called the FCC's mobile broadband agenda:

1. "Unleashing spectrum" for 4G service. He said mobile broadband usage is exploding, and the FCC has to promote more efficient use of spectrum.
2. Remove obstacles to 4G deployment, for example by streamlining the tower siting process.
3. Develop fair rules of the road for the Internet. He said it's important to ensure the Internet remains open, and that the FCC has to empower entrepreneurs, not lawyers.
4. Empowering consumers by supporting a transparent marketplace. He also said vibrant and competitive marketplace, but he focused on transparency -- nominally more information for consumers -- as the means to fostering greater competition.

He clearly intends to be an activist FCC chairman. His plans would create a bigger role for the FCC in regulating the telecommunications industry, wired and wireless, telephone, cable and broadband alike.

The better the available information, the better a free marketplace will work in theory. That's fine. But it's a short step from requiring better information to trying to actively manage the workings of the market, and then to dictating outcomes.

The point wasn't lost on Ralph de la Vega, CEO of AT&T Mobility and the second keynote speaker. He thanked Genchowski for his stated good intentions, but quickly hit back, saying we (presumably meaning America if not the entire world) need an Internet free of "burdensome regulation". He said the Internet is open now, and needs to stay that way.

In a genuine debate, it would have been difficult for de la Vega to make the case that the particular corner of the Internet that he is responsible for is open. Like all U.S. mobile carriers, AT&T manages what subscribers can do with their bandwidth, and what devices they can use.

On the other hand, Genchowski would have been equally hard pressed to explain how a more activist regulator will lead to greater market freedom. Creating "fair" rules and "empowering" particular market players is in fact the reverse of letting the market operate.

Even free market economists usually allow that natural monopolies, such as telecoms networks, need some degree of regulation, so there's clearly a role for the FCC to play. If that role is limited to increasing transparency and improving the ability of consumers to make economically rational choices, Genchowski and de la Vega should have no argument between them.

Will Genchowski so limit himself and his colleagues? I did not leave with the feeling that he sees himself as a simple referee. Rather, his enthusiasm is palpable for the work he laid out. I expect he will lead an FCC that increasingly sees itself as an industry player, at the least co-equal with the private sector, and sitting on the opposing side of the table.

Maybe Genchowski really believes he can foster entrepreneurial growth through federal regulation, rather than creating a bull market for Washington lawyers, lobbyists and special interests. If he does, he needs to explain how.

Carriers can't rock and roll

2009-10-06T16:33:00.000-07:00

AT&T's Rob Hyatt and Verizon's Ed Ruth spoke today about the music business at the Mobile Entertainment conference at the CTIA show in San Diego. Neither were upbeat about their success to date, and both seemed to be waiting for something to happen. They seemed to define that something as "innovation" in the market place, but what they really seemed to want are innovations that allow them to keep music downloads and streaming within their walled gardens.

Hyatt said that AT&T's executives don't find the business case for music to be compelling. While Ruth paid lip service to openness, or rather Verizon's version of openness, he made it clear that Verizon intends to own the app and download stores on its network, and keep content revenue moving through their existing customer billing relationships.

More than anything, they seemed puzzled by the way the music industry itself works and the relationship that consumers have with it. A telling moment was when Ruth talked about their devices and download stores being on a par with Apple's products and iTunes store. The point that he seemed to be trying to make was that it's just a matter of time before they start eating into the iTunes market share.

Others attribute Apple's dominance to its understanding of the app store ecosystem. It's the combination of a developer community, the blessing and support of a major mobile carrier, compelling content and a pleasant, easily grasped user experience.

Apple is the application and content provider that has gone the furthest in busting out of the mobile carriers' preferred business model. Money is more evenly divided amongst the players -- developers, content owners, retail and carrier. More generous cash flow is an incentive for developers to put the iPhone at the top of the priority list, which means more applications are released for it, and more quickly. In turn, more apps lead to greater consumer interest, which translates into more sales. More sales means more money, and the cycle reinforces itself.

Meanwhile, the carriers wait for (there's that word again) innovation. The content owners have to be innovative enough to accept the mobile carrier's business model, and consumers have to be innovative enough to just do what they're told. Success is just a matter of time. Could be a very long time.

Telecom Deficit Slows Angola's Development

2009-07-20T10:10:00.000-07:00

Steve Blum, Tellus Venture
Associates, doing project
due diligence in HuamboTelecommunications and transportation make the difference between subsistence farming and sustainable commercial agriculture in Angola's Huambo province, where Tellus Venture Associates is supporting a development project through Rotary International. The physical infrastructure was obliterated during nearly 30 years of civil war, but mobile phone applications could soon provide a life-saving solution.

Potatoes sold in Huambo might earn $175 per ton, but could fetch $500 or more per ton in coastal markets, hundreds of kilometers away. Using fertilizer and improved seed varieties, a smallholder farmer might produce 2.5 tons per crop. But that seed and fertilizer costs about $375, which means selling it locally will net little more than $60, while selling it on the coast nets $875. With two crops a years, that's the difference between trying, often failing, to survive on pennies day, and earning enough to buy a family basic necessities, including a level of education for the children.

Destroyed military equipment
litters the countrysideIt's possible to stagger production within and among villages so that some produce can be sold on an annual contract basis. But agriculture is still largely a seasonal business, which makes up to date market information absolutely vital. The Gates Foundation and World Vision are working on filling that gap in Huambo. Lack of telecommunications infrastructure makes it very difficult, though.

The skeletal remains of utility transmission poles and towers are scattered throughout the province. Communications facilities were fought over and heavily mined during the war, and even today Huambo has one of the highest concentrations of landmines and active minefields on the planet.

Trunking within
and out of
Huambo is
based on
point to point
microwaveChinese, Brazilian and Portuguese companies are rebuilding roads and rail lines, and in a couple of places underground fiber optic lines are reportedly going in at the same time. Angola Telecom, the government-owned PTT, provides landlines and phone service. Private carriers are beginning to appear, but it's hard to tell if claims of progress are supported by facts on the ground. It's possible to get a POTS line in some towns -- after a long wait or a quick, under the table payment -- but reliability is low. The bulk of day to day communication in Angola generally, and Huambo province in particular, is wireless.

There are two privately-owned mobile carriers, Movicel (CDMA) and Unitel (GSM). Coverage for both is relatively good in the capital of Luanda, although both regularly experience outages and have significant gaps. As a result, it's common in urban areas for people to subscribe to both and carry two mobile phones.

In rural Huambo, where the agricultural development project is continuing, mobile network coverage is spotty. But spotty beats nothing at all. The next step in the project is to set up a commodity price reporting service from coastal markets, via SMS and MMS.

Luanda, the capital,
has the consumers,
Huambo has the produceThe Gates Foundation is funding market development programs, which establish contractual relationships with coastal supermarkets, restaurants and other wholesale buyers. Mobile phones could provide the essential link between those markets and smallholders in Huambo.

Longer term the hope is to extend Internet access into villages, to enable ongoing education and technical assistance from agricultural and marketing experts, in addition to current market data. Right now, the focus is on finding a sustainable way of paying for VSAT terminals, but a terrestrial solution – WiMAX, say – is likelier to succeed. Given the ample high ground around the agricultural valley, a handful of base stations, maybe as few as one or two, could service all the current project areas. Backhaul could be terrestrial or satellite-based, although much of the project-related traffic would be local and could be handled through what would be, in effect, a WAN.

Operating expenses have to be tighly controlled. Even taking full advantage of coastal market opportunities, cash flow will be at low levels relative to the cost of international VSAT service. The cost of bandwidth has to be proportional to the actual value added by any given application, which favors keeping as much traffic as possible on a local network.

Handicapping the BTOP Derby and the BIP Stakes

2009-07-12T21:28:00.000-07:00

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) put on a great show in San Francisco on Friday. Hosted by Commissioner Rachelle Chong, and featuring State of California CIO Teri Takai, Susan Walters from the California Emerging Technology Fund (CETF), and several very well prepared staffers, the workshop covered the essential details you need to know in order to apply for NTIA's BTOP (Broadband Technology Opportunities Program) grants or RUS's BIP (Broadband Initiatives Program) money, and to have a hope of getting matching funds from either CPUC via the California Advanced Services Fund (CASF) or CETF.

The presentations and audience questions shed some light – sometimes intentionally, sometimes not – on what's going on behind the scenes as the mad scramble to file applications by the 14 August 2009 deadline continues. The presentations, handouts and other items of interest are posted on my website.

Here's how I see it...

BIP Loans and Grants
The Rural Utilities Service is out in front by furlong, before they've even hit the first turn. RUS has more than 70 years of experience milking Washington on behalf of its clients and it shows. It's going nearly all in on this round, offering $2.4 billion now and leaving only $300 million for future rounds. That way, the rural carriers it supports can come back for NTIA money in the second and third rounds. And its written its rules to favor the good old boys. Existing recipients of RUS pork get explicit priority for funding, and the grantmaking criteria – which look impenetrable to the uninitiated – are as familiar as a dead armadillo to those in the know.

BTOP Broadband Infrastructure Grants
If you're a regional telephone company, you live and breath the detailed documentation required to submit an application. Broadband availability and subscribership levels down to the census block level? No problem, we have a junior analyst keeping our database warm just in case someone asks. Plans certified by a professional engineer? Financials done to GAAP standards? Long list of people we won't fire, I'm sorry, of jobs created or preserved? No worries, it's already posted on our web site. And so it goes.

For well prepared community broadband proposals – projects that are well along the pipeline – there's a glimmer of hope. Everyone else, get in line and expect to stay there, even if you've kept your project under the $1 million threshold because you thought it meant an easier ride. $1.2 billion is on the table this round. Here's how I see the applications shaking out:

Rock solid proposals, written almost as if they knew in advance what the questions would be: 500 to 1,000, mostly incumbent telcos and big MSOs (okay, in innovative coalitions and public/private partnerships with blah blah blah).
Arguably complete applications that might or might not withstand several rounds of reviews, including a 30 day challenge period when the telcos can rip them to shreds: maybe 2,000 applications, covering a mixed bag of CLECs, cable companies, cities, middle mile providers and eternally optimistic entrepreneurs.
Hail Mary requests for $999,000 written by the summer intern: 5,000 requests from middle managers who want the boss to think they did it by working through lunch hour. Caveat: this estimate is subject to revision. There might not be 5,000 middle managers still employed in America.

Infrastructure projects funded: 100 to 150, mostly to the big telcos, with some small fry included to make it look like the fix wasn't in.

BTOP Public Computer Center Grants
Every school, community college, local government, Boys and Girls Club and Elks Lodge with a grant writer will apply for this one. Expect 10,000 or more applications for the $50 million available, with maybe 500 awarded. The bulk of the money will go towards program costs, not hardware, which means something like 1,000 jobs funded for a year or less.

BTOP Sustainable Broadband Adoption Grants
Huh? Oh, you mean you didn't know we're giving priority to projects that are allied with larger ARRA-funded stimulations? Sorry about that, but if you've scored a big health services or education grant, be sure to stop by the BTOP desk on the way out to pick up a few million for a telemedicine or distance learning add-on, after all we have $150 million that's shovel ready this round. Everyone else, well, thanks for sending in those 20,000 applications, and we apologize for not explaining what sustainable broadband adoption means. We figured it would be really funny to just let everyone guess.

Don't forget to reapply in round 2!

Tellus Venture Associates does hands-on development work in Angola

2009-07-06T14:47:00.000-07:00

Tellus Venture Associates is supporting a comprehensive development effort in Angola's Huambo province. The project combines agricultural and marketing education, infrastructure building, seed (literally) capital, market development and microfinance. I became involved a couple of years ago when I helped my Rotary district raise $250,000 for the project, amounting to 25% of the first phase. The remaining 75% is from World Vision, a development and relief-focused NGO, and the Angolan government.

Manuel de Sousa, president of the Rotary Club of Luanda (left),
and Steve Blum (right) at the EU/World Vision agricultural
training center in Huambo province

In June 2009 I traveled to Huambo, with several fellow Rotarians, for due diligence on the current project as well as future needs assessment. The trip began for me in Cape Town, South Afica, where I met with District 9350's leadership. Worldwide, Rotary is organized into about 500 districts, and the one that covers Angola is headquartered in Cape Town.

Building a potato
seed warehouse at
EU and World Vision
training facilityFrom there I went to Luanda, Angola's capital, to meet with the project managers and join the rest of the Rotary team. World Vision, a Seattle-based NGO, has overall management responsibility for the Huambo project, collaborating with Rotary as well as the European Union, the Gates Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Angolan government and others.

Once everyone was in country, we flew to Huambo, located about 600 kilometers from Luanda, in the central highlands of Angola. It was ground zero for a 27 year civil war, that began in 1975 when the Portugese government abandoned its Angolan colony. The fighting was primarily between the U.S.-supported UNITA, based in Huambo, and the Soviet-backed MPLA, which counted Luanda as a stronghold and eventually achieved international recognition as the national government.

Party flag still flies
over bombed-out UNITA
headquarters in HuamboSouth African and Cuban troops supported the respective sides, as fighting swept back and forth across the province. The town of Huambo, Angola's second largest city, changed hands several times and suffered heavy damage. In 2002, the last remnants of UNITA were defeated. The province is still inundated with landmines, despite years of de-mining operations by international organizations.

NGOs, such as World Vision and Rotary, the Angolan government and the international community are cooperating to rebuild Huambo, and develop a sustainable economy that can support the 3 or 4 million people who live in and around the province.

Planting Rotary-provided
seed, a woman works with
her baby on her
back, a common sight
in HuamboRotary's $250,000 bought seed and fertilizer for 25 agricultural associations. These associations are based in villages that have access to a year-round source of water for gravity-fed irrigation, and have suitable soil and climate conditions for potato cultivation. Potatoes are transportable and can fetch up to $500 per ton in coastal market towns, making it an ideal cash crop for Angola.

Each association received extensive agricultural training, sponsored by the EU and World Vision, and planted test plots to determine the best potato variety to use and the optimum level of fertilizer application.

Off main roads,
rough dirt tracks
and makeshift bridges
link farms to marketsThe Gates Foundation and others are funding market development programs for the village associations. Lack of transporation makes it difficult to reliably serve coastal markets. Roads and rail lines were devastated by the civil war, and the extensive mine fields make rebuilding a slow and careful process. Even so, the road to Luanda is nearly all re-paved and a rail line to the coast is scheduled to open in 2010.

Much of the civil infrastructure is being rebuilt by the Chinese government, and Brazilian and Portuguese companies are also very much in evidence. Angola is not a destitute country. It is one of the major oil producers in Africa, sometimes ranking as the top producer. But severe structural inefficiencies and trade barriers created by the formerly Marxist government, combined with what is reported to be (and, to the extent of my experience, appears to be) endemic corruption means relatively little money benefits ordinary Angolans.

Reviewing results
from fertilizer
application testing We reviewed the tender documents for the seed and fertilizer, verified it was in warehouses with proper inventory control procedures, and saw the beginning of planting by one of the associations. We also met with association leaders and government officials, visited the marketing, training and test plot programs, and saw a microfinance program in action.

I took the overland route back to Luanda, traveling nine hours in a Land Cruiser. Most of the road had been repaved since the war, but some sections, particularly river crossings, are still under construction.

The Kwanza River is
Luanda's lifelineOnce we left Huambo, the countryside was mostly undeveloped and sparsely settled, if not completely uninhabited. One reason was readily apparent: I saw minefield warnings and the remains of destroyed armored personnel carriers and light tanks most of the way. Only when we crossed the Kwanza River and approached Luanda did we see large towns and extensive development.

Our local Rotary team, from the Monterey and Fresno areas, will meet soon to plan next steps. At this point, we hope to raise another $250,000 that can once again be leveraged up into a million dollar project in Huambo.